PH economy seen to contract by more than 7 percent in 2020


"The economic threat posed by the Covid-19 pandemic remains potent, as extended first waves or recurring outbreaks could prompt further containment measures", Mr Sawada said.

The coronavirus pandemic will cause economic output in "developing Asia" to shrink for the first time in almost six decades in 2020 before it bounces back next year, the Asian Development Bank said on Tuesday.

The outlook contrasts with a 5.1-percent expansion a year ago.

Coronavirus-ravaged economies across the Asian Pacific will contract this year for the first time since the early 1960s, and a "swoosh-shaped" recovery next year could be derailed by a prolonged pandemic, the Asian Development Bank forecast on Tuesday.

2020 Update, ADB forecast a strong recovery for the economy in FY2021, with GDP to grow by 8.0 percent as mobility and business activities resume more widely. India's current account deficit is forecast to shrink to 0.3 percent of GDP this fiscal year, then widen to 0.6 percent of GDP in FY2021 with exports expected to recover as global growth rebounds.

Growth will rally to 6.8 per cent in 2021, in part because growth will be measured relative to a weak 2020.

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ADB further predicts that inflation is expected to fall in the remainder of FY2020 to 4.5 percent with tamed food prices and decreased economic activity, and then further decline to 4.0 percent in FY2021. "Consistent and coordinated steps to address the pandemic, with policy priorities focusing on protecting lives and livelihoods of people who are already most vulnerable, and ensuring the safe return to work and restart of business activities, will continue to be crucial to ensure the region's eventual recovery is inclusive and sustainable". To mitigate the chance, governments within the area have delivered wide-ranging coverage responses together with coverage assist packages - primarily earnings assist - amounting to three.6 trillion or equal to about 15 per cent of regional GDP. The report cautioned that the main risk to this growth projection is a prolonged pandemic in Bangladesh or its export destinations. It is predicted to develop by 1.8 per cent this 12 months and seven.7 per cent in 2021 with profitable public well being measures offering a platform for development.

But China is expected to buck the trend.

Tourism-dependent island economies, in particular, have seen wrenching economic contractions.

After successfully beating back the disease, the world's second-largest economy is forecast to grow 1.8 percent this year and 7.7 percent in 2021, the bank said.

"The path and speed of economic recovery in regional economies will depend on many different factors, the most important of which is [the] ability to control and contain the pandemic", the ADB said.

The ADB stated that depressed need and low oil rates would assist keep local inflation low at 2.9 percent this year, and cut it to 2.3 percent in 2021.

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