No-deal Brexit could tip United Kingdom and European Union into recession, International Monetary Fund says


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Bulgaria's GDP growth as ending at 3.3 per cent in 2019, but slowing to three per cent in 2020, according to its April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

Globally, IMF cut growth by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6 per cent for 2018 from its October 2018 World Economic Outlook due to weakness in the second-half of the year.

The IMF also forecasts an unemployment rate of 6.8% this year, above the previous estimate of 6.5% and higher than the government's estimate of 6.3%. The IMF raised its forecast for US growth in 2020 by a tenth of a percentage point to 1.9 per cent.

"With this weakness expected to persist into the first half of 2019, our new World Economic Outlook projects a slowdown in growth in 2019 for 70 percent of the world economy", she wrote in a blog on Tuesday. Following softened growth of 3.6 per cent past year, it is projected to further slow in the first half of 2019 to reach 3.3 per cent, representing a downward growth projection of 0.2 per cent.

As per the recent All India Index of Industrial Production, growth in the manufacturing sector slowed to 1.3% in January, while the growth of eight core industries remained sluggish at 2.1% in February.

The report said: "Following a broad-based upswing in cyclical growth that lasted almost two years, the global economic expansion decelerated in the second-half of 2018". If the downside risks do not materialize and the policy support put in place is effective, global growth should rebound.

But with temporary factors waning, Germany's growth is projected to accelerate to 1.4 percent and Italy to 0.9 percent.

Risks to global growth are prevalent though.

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The IMF is holding its spring meeting in Washington this week, with the world's finance ministers and central bankers preparing to attend.

In its third downgrade since October, the International Monetary Fund said the global economy will likely grow 3.3 per cent this year, the slowest expansion since 2016.

Global trade growth has slowed sharply from its peak in late 2017, and expectations for future business activity have weakened, pointing to slowing momentum ahead, the report said.

Tensions in trade policy could flare up again and play out in other areas (such as the auto industry), with large disruptions to global supply chains, she cautioned.

Rupee that lost a quarter of its value against the dollar over a year kept consumer inflation on the upward trajectory and in March alone, annual consumer inflation reached more than five years high of 9.41 percent.

Regionally, IMF predicts that the baseline outlook for emerging Asia remains favourable, while subdued commodity prices and civil strife or conflict in some cases, contribute to subdued medium-term prospects for Latin America; the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan region; and parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

"The projected recovery reflects modestly reduced but continued policy uncertainty in the South African economy after the May 2019 elections".

The U.S. economy, while seen outperforming other rich nations' economies, also got a downgrade on signs that a fiscal stimulus fuelled by tax cuts was producing less activity than previously expected.

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