NOAA’s winter forecast for JH looks warm and dry

The three-month weather outlook in the Jackson Hole area calls for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation December through February. "The last cold winter that the country saw was back in 2013-14, and I'd expect MI to probably follow that pattern". They also said the El Nino will have a 70 percent to 75 percent chance of happening.

An overall mild winter is expected when it comes to temperatures, with most of the US expected to see warmer than normal temperatures, some much warmer than normal, according to the NOAA outlook from its Climate Prediction Center.

What will determine just how wet the Carolinas' winter could be is El Niño, "an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific". During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, of the private company Atmospheric and Environmental Research, uses different indicators to predict winter for the National Science Foundation.

Much of the north and west parts of the country - especially Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains - are set to see warmer-than-normal conditions, NOAA said.

The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any which way on temperature, Halpert said.

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The NOAA outlook covers the months of December, January and February, when the average high temperatures in Portland are 37 degrees, 31 degrees and 35 degrees, respectively.

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook seems to at least indirectly contradict the one released by the 2019 Farmers' Almanac, an annual Lewiston-based publication which uses a mathematical and astronomical formula created in 1818 to come up with long-range forecasts.

It also said that wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern part of the US, and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.

Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, parts of Idaho, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and OH are forecast to be drier than normal, with the biggest likelihood in Hawaii, Montana and Michigan.

Drought conditions may worsen in much of Southern and Central California, although the north coast of California may see some relief, according to NOAA.

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