IMF Raises Russia's GDP Growth Forecast to 1.8% in 2019

FIA headquarters

In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund said growth for China and a number of Asian economies "have also been revised down following the recently announced trade measures" and that the forecast will continue to be "tilted to the downside, both in the short term and beyond".

The IMF announced it had reduced its outlook on the global economy to a 3.7% growth rate for this year and next, down 0.2% from what it had originally predicted in July.

"There are clouds on the horizon", he said.

He stated, "Nigeria's growth, 1.9 per cent this year; 2.3 next year".

In September, the USA implemented another round of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which were met with countermeasures out of Beijing on $60 billion worth of US goods. The two economies at the heart of the tariff fight are expected to feel the pain.

Citing the U.S. tariffs on China and Beijing's retaliatory measures, as well as U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose global automobile and parts tariffs, International Monetary Fund chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said he regards "further disruption in trade policies" as major near-term downside risks.

Global economic growth is now expected to reach 3.7% in 2018 and 2019, down from the IMF's previous prediction of 3.9% in July.

The WEO report also included 2023 projections: 6.9 percent GDP growth for the Philippines, and three percent for its inflation.

The Government estimates the economy will expand 6,3 percent against the initial projection of 4,5 percent.

Pakistan to seek International Monetary Fund bailout, stocks gain
Output could fall by more than 1.6 per cent in China and over 0.9 per cent in the USA next year, according to the IMF's models. The S&P 500 index edged 0.1 percent lower to 2,884.43, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2 percent to 26,486.78.

Obstfeld said he was not concerned about the Chinese government's ability to defend its currency against further weakening but told a news conference that Beijing would face a "balancing act" between actions to shore up growth and ensuring financial stability.

The IMF had, in a publication last week, noted that South-east Asia's largest economy has also undergone dramatic transformation since the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago and boosted its fundamentals.

He said although the region would witness growth next year but the growing number of working class coupled with less jobs opportunities, huge public debts and poor infrastructure present a challenge in achieving the developmental goals of the United Nations.

Beyond tax revenues and sovereign debts, a government's balance sheet contains a range of other assets and liabilities, such as the state enterprises, land and natural resources it owns as well as the money it has to pay to fund public-sector employee pensions.

Pakistan's gross external financing requirement has been estimated at $22-25 billion for the current financial year FY19.

"In several key economies, moreover, growth is being supported by policies that seem unsustainable over the long term", he said. He said the State Bank has already raised interest rates by 275 basis points to 8.5 percent in calendar year to date.

"US growth will decline once parts of its fiscal stimulus go into reverse", Mr Obstfeld said in a statement.

For 2019 however, the country's 6.6 percent growth forecast tops most countries in ASEAN, closely followed by Vietnam with 6.5 percent while Indonesia is a distant third with 5.1 percent.

The risk of further capital outflows remains high for Indonesia, especially if oil prices continue to rise, and this is quite worrisome, because 40 percent of its fiscal deficit, although below 2 percent of GDP, is held by typically jittery foreign portfolio investors.

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