International Monetary Fund predicts India will grow at 7.3% in 2018-’19

IMF cuts world economic growth forecasts as import tariffs emerging market issues bite

Considering developments since then, however, that number appears over-optimistic: "rather than rising, growth has plateaued at 3.7 per cent", IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld said as the world body released the World Economic Outlook, its annual flagship report.

Obstfeld said the impacts of trade policy and uncertainty are becoming evident at the macroeconomic level, while anecdotal evidence accumulates on the resulting harm to companies.

The revised estimates includes a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the United States and China in 2019.

"The provision of 10 million jobs and millions of housing units might become the victims as it will become hard to pursue the projects under the tight noose of the International Monetary Fund scrutiny", said one independent economist and added that the International Monetary Fund would pursue one shoe fit for all policy under which the sacrosanct targets of budget deficit and current account deficits would be curtailed by comprising growth and hiking inflationary pressures.

"Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 U.S. growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China's retaliation".

India's medium-term growth prospects remain strong at 7.75 per cent, benefiting from ongoing structural reform, but have been marked down by just under 0.5 percentage point relative to the April 2018 WEO, it said.

While saying Chinese growth "remained strong", the International Monetary Fund added that Beijing policymakers were navigating a "difficult trade-off between growth and stability".

It also predicted that unemployment here will fall to 5.3% by the end of this year and 5.1% next year. The IMF called for reforms in labour and land markets in the country, as well as improving the business climate.

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"Overall, compared with six months ago, projected 2018-19 growth in advanced economies is 0.1 percentage point lower, including downgrades for the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Korea".

"But there is no denying that the susceptibility to large global shocks has risen".

Growth forecasts for emerging markets were given a more severe haircut by the Washington-based lender.

The dominant USA economy has been shielded from the ill effects so far due to the stimulus provided through tax cuts and spending policies but that will wear off by 2020.

"Where we are now is we've gotten some bad news".

That includes President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminum, steel and other products worldwide.

Adjustments would occur as domestic production displaces higher-priced imports, the model shows, but in the long run, the US GDP would still be 1% below a baseline without these tariffs, while China's GDP output would be 0.5% below the baseline.

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